ZoneAsia-Pk

By Raven Gale

The research linking Pakistan’s ISI to the Taleban by Matt Waldman (a Harvard Research Fellow) published by the London School of Economics has made many people happy. Amrullah Saleh Afghanistan’s former Intelligence chief recently sacked by Karzai must be ecstatic because besides bad mouthing Karzai his other hobby is blaming the ISI for all of Afghanistan’s problems. Those in the West and the US who seek excuses for the failure in Afghanistan must be happy for confirmation of their scapegoat –the ISI and Pakistan’s duplicitous policies! India whose nemesis is the ISI and whose main occupation is blaming Pakistan must be overjoyed. Matt Waldman has achieved his purpose—he has made waves—and he will find many to support his research if it can be called that.

The ‘research’ is based on ‘interviews’ with nine ‘Taleban Commanders’ from different geographic areas. This must be the first time that Taleban Commanders, if that is who they are, have done something like this with the full knowledge that they may become targets of the real Taleban. A Taleban spokesman has rejected the entire research and its conclusions—this rejection is authentic. Ten former Taleban are also said to have been consulted---if this is true then it is also a fact that former Taleban have no credibility and would say anything to anybody for whatever they can get out of it. Finally six unnamed ‘security officials’ are cited as a source----some source! So much for the research behind this paper!

There is mention of a Taleban Supreme Council and a Shura as if there is a formal structure that meets with the ISI as a member. Those familiar with such operations know that even when seven militant groups were being coordinated jointly by the CIA and the ISI against the Soviets in Afghanistan there never was such a formal body. It simply does not work in that neat way. Even if there was such a body no Afghan in his right mind would allow Pakistan’s ISI to be a part of it. If this is what Mr Waldman was told then he has been taken for a ride.

Most amazing is mention of the President of Pakistan meeting with Afghan Taleban and assuring them of his support and even taking them into confidence over what must be the most secret part of Pakistan’s covert policy. This boggles the mind because never before has the President or any other high level official exposed himself in such a way. Why should the current President do this? And to what end? The positive part is that this President-ISI nexus indicates a healthy civil –military relationship—this is true—but this is not for the purpose being mentioned. If this is taken as the basis for Pakistan’s pro Taleban policy then the entire research effort is flawed.

The research states and implies that Pakistan is playing a double game. The researcher ignores the basic fact that Pakistan is the strategic center of gravity in the war against terror in Afghanistan and FATA. The Pakistan military is fighting an insurgency that draws strength from the situation in Afghanistan and it is paying a heavy price---hardly the scenario for double games. If there is failure in Afghanistan, and so far there has not been significant success, then the main defense and bulwark against the threat will be Pakistan –just as it was when the Soviet Union had overrun Afghanistan. The ISI is the only intelligence agency that can deliver results and, of course, it needs contacts with the Taleban to do this. The ISI would have friends as well as enemies because it is there to do a job not pander to all those who are holding out their hands.

This ‘research paper’ comes out just when Karzai is finally acting as an Afghan and realizing that Pakistan has to be part of the Afghan solution. It is also conveniently timed with India’s discomfiture at the importance being given to Pakistan by the US and the West and when there are rational voices asking the US to give Pakistan the economic and military support to complete its operations in the FATA and undertake long term measures against extremism. Pakistan is also concluding an oil pipeline deal with Iran and a nuclear power reactors agreement with Afghanistan. There are going to be more such ‘research papers’ and ‘reports’ from those who cannot stand to see Pakistan making progress. The US has spent US $ 300 billion in Afghanistan so far and it is spending US $ 70 billion annually. 1800 foreign troops of which 1100 are Americans have been killed in Afghanistan. Surely the US would not be doing all this if it was not completely sure of the alliance with Pakistan—if the ‘research paper’ seeks to undermine the US-Pakistan relationship then it is subversive for US policy and goals.